Target Iran - Air Strikes (Can Israel Strike?)

Target Iran - Air Strikes

In May 2003, Ephraim Asculai, a former Israeli Atomic
Energy Comission official, in an article written for the
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, wrote that "nuclear
verification is clearly failing in Iran, when (the IAEA) let
Iran proceed with its ambitious program. In any case, it
would be unable to deter or stop its development of
nuclear weapons. The verification mechanisms will fail
by not being able to prove anything, since intentions,
particularly when based on legal actions, are unverifiable."

The annual intelligence assessment presented to Israel's
Knesset on 21 July 2004 noted that Iran's nuclear program
is the biggest threat facing Israel, "Maariv" and "Yediot
Aharonot" reported on 22 July 2004. Some Likud and
Labor Knesset members subsequently called for a
preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear facility.
Former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh (Labor)
said, "If the international community's helplessness in
the face of the Iranian threat persists, Israel will have
to weigh its steps -- and soon." Ehud Yatom (Likud)
said, "The Iranian nuclear facilities must be destroyed,
just as we did the Iraqi reactor. We must strive to
attain the ability to damage and destroy any nuclear
capability that might be directed against Israel." On
08 September 2004 Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
said the international community has not done enough
to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and
warns that Israel will take its own measures to
defend itself. He also said Iranian officials have
made it clear they seek the destruction of the
Jewish state. Israeli Air Force pilots have been
practicing attacks on a scale model of the Bushehr
reactor in the Negev Desert.

In October 2004 Ephraim Kam, the deputy head
f the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said that
"It would be a complicated operation. In order to
undermine or disrupt the Iranian nuclear program,
you would have to strike at least three or four
sites ... Otherwise the damage would be too
limited, and it would not postpone the program
by more than a year or two, and this could in
the end be worse than doing nothing." Shai
Feldman, also at the Jaffee Center, said "There
is a logic to operating against Iran even if the
location of every facility is not known, because
just taking out the facilities that are known,
especially if they include the enrichment and
heavy water plants, would in itself create a

serious degradation of the Iranian potential."

The Israeli Air Force received the first two of
25 F-15I [I for Israel, no Iran] Ra’am (Thunder)
aircraft, the Israeli version of the F-15E Strike Eagle,
in January 1998, and as of early 2004 had an
inventory of 25 aircraft. According to the Israeli
Air Force, this aircraft has a range of 4,450 km,
which equates to a combat radius of 2,225 km.
Deliveries of the F-16I Sufa (Storm) began in early
2004. This heavily modified aircraft, with massive
conformal fuel tanks, has a reported combat radius
of 2,100 km. Probable strike targets such as Bushehr
and Esfahan lie about 1,500 km from Israel.

The 2,060-km strike on the Palestine Liberation
Organization's headquarters in Tunis in October 1985,
in retaliation for the murder of three Israelis on a
yacht in Cyprus, was the IAF's furthest attack from
home to date. The F-16s which bombed the Iraqi
reactor in 1981 were not refueled and returned
home on their last drops of fuel.

On 21 September 2004 Israel acknowledged that
it was buying 500 BLU-109 bunker-buster bombs,
which could be used to destroy Iran's nuclear
facilities. The bombs, which can penetrate more
than 7 feet of reinforced concrete, are part of a
$319 million package of air-launched bombs being
sold to Israel under America's military aid program.

The German magazine Der Spiegel reported in October
2004 that Israel had completed plans for a pre-emptive
strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Der Spiegel
reported that a special unit of the Mossad had received
order in July 2004 to prepare a detailed plan, which had
been delivered to the Israeli Air Force. The source for
the report, an IAF pilot, said the plan to take out Iran's
nuclear sites was "complex, yet manageable." Israel's
plan assumes that Iran has six nuclear sites, all of which
would be attacked simultaneously.

It would be difficult for Israel to strike at Iran without
American knowledge, since the mission would have
to be flown through American [formerly Iraqi] air
space. Even if the United States did not actively
participate with operations inside Iranian air space,
the US would be a passive participant by virtue of
allowing Israeli aircraft unhindered passage. In the
eyes of the world, it would generally appear to be
a joint US-Israeli enterprise, any denials
notwithstanding. Indeed, it is quite probable that
Iran would not be able to readily determine the
ultimate origins of the strike, given Iran's relatively
modest air defense capabilities. Thus, even if the
strike were entirely of American origin, Israel
would be implicated. When asked in August 2004
about Israeli threats to attack Iran, Bush's national
security adviser Condoleezza Rice, declined to say
whether the United States would support such
action by Israel.

In an 08 September 2004 interview in the "Jerusalem
Post" newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
says the international community has not done enough
to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and
warns that Israel will take its own measures to defend
itself. Sharon said there was no doubt that Iran is
trying to obtain nuclear weapons and is doing so by
"deception and subterfuge." He said international
efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions had not been
sufficient. Sharon calls for increased pressure and
supervision of Iran's nuclear program and said the
issue should be brought before the UN Security
Council for sanctions to be levied against Tehran.
Sharon said Israel would take steps to defend itself
against the Iranian threat. He did not elaborate.

Even though the uranium facility at Natanz has
been buried underground, it remains vulnerable.
As Lieutenant Colonel Eric M. Sepp noted, "The
"cut-and-cover" facilities are constructed by digging
a hole, inserting a facility, and then covering it up
with dirt and rocks. These cut-and-cover facilities
can be just below the surface of the ground or may
reach a depth of perhaps 100 feet, and represent
the vast majority of underground facilities today.
In the case of contemporary cut-and-cover facilities,
there is no question that conventional munitions can
defeat them."

The air strikes option does have the same problems
that one would face in North Korea, namely that Iran
has a rather significant air defense capability which
could complicate use plans. However, unlike North
Korea, Iran is not in a position to hold US soldiers or
allied civilian populations (Iraq) hostage. A full-scale
Iranian military retaliation, though possible, is highly
unlikely, especially with the significant US force
presence in Iraq. It is possible that Iran could use its
ballistic missiles to strike US or allied targets throughout
the Persian Gulf region, and in fact Iranian officials have
explicitly promised to do just that.