Posted by: "Beowulf" Beowulf@thedurendal.com brucetefft
Thu Jun 28, 2007 4:39 pm (PST)
Hizbullah preparing for next war with Israel - analysts
Michel Moutot, Agence France Presse, 28 June 2007
'Israel can't live with impression it lost to a militia' BEIRUT: Hizbullah is busy preparing for another attack by Israel in the knowledge that the Jewish state will not rest easy with the results of last summer's 34-day conflict, military analysts in Beirut believe. Since a UN-brokered cease-fire came into force last August 14, the group has been steadily gearing itself up for the next round, with the same determination and secrecy that have made its reputation, the experts say.
"Immediately after last summer's war Hizbullah began refortifying its positions and working on new ones,"said Judith Palmer Harik, author of the book "Hizbullah: The Changing Face of Terrorism." "They are rearming ... In fact, there has been no interruption in their receiving of more arms," she told AFP.
The only Lebanese militia officially allowed its own arsenal by the government, Hizbullah has reportedly moved most of its weapons out of the border area with Israel to conform with Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the conflict.
A Western military observer in the Lebanese capital, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Hizbullah was now redeploying its arms further North."They left the [border] zone at once," he said. "Last summer, much to their surprise, they found themselves fighting well in front of their strongest lines because the Israeli Army halted near the frontier. "Hizbullah has far stronger positions in the rear, north of the Litani river, that no one knows about and that they are fortifying all the time."
For 24 years Timur Göksel was the public face of the United Nations Interim
Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and the former UNIFIL spokesman says it is only a
matter of time before war between Israel and Hizbullah breaks out again.
"Israel can't live in the Middle East with the impression they lost to Hizbullah, a militia,"
said Göksel, now lecturing at the American University of Beirut."Since 1949 they lived on their reputation of the unbeatable Israeli soldier, the invincible Jewish Army, the legend. And here comes the Hizbullah who says 'We beat you.' They have to set that correct. They have no other option - they have to restore their credibility."
He says further conflict is inevitable but not imminent."Not now, it will take Israel time to be ready. I'd say two years. Hizbullah knows that very well and they are working on it full-time." Even in the border zone, patrolled by blue-helmeted international
peacekeepers and the Lebanese Army, Hizbullah is busy preparing for the next round of hostilities.
The militants are so accepted by villagers in the area that no outsider gets
to know what is really going on there."Iron discipline reigns within the Hizbullah ranks," Göksel told AFP."Promotion is only on merit and security vetting Draconian. They're almostimpossible to infiltrate and extraordinarily professional.
Retired Lebanese General Wehbe Katisha has no doubt that Hizbullah "has retained its military potential and is preparing for the next assault."UNIFIL knows nothing about what's going on in the Shiite zone. It's not an easy situation for the Lebanese Army - we don't have enough numbers, equipment or vehicles." Katisha said that last month a container full of shells and missiles, sent by Iran via Turkey and Syria, was intercepted.
"Hizbullah is Iran's vanguard against Israel," Katisha said."If Iran is attacked, everyone knows that the response will begin with Hizbullah."
Shortly after last summer's devastating conflict ended, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that the militant group's arsenal had been replenished and that it now included new weaponry."Knowing their organization, their planning, I think they are going to go more on sophisticated air defense,"
Palmer Harik said."Hizbullah is a great mixture of traditional guerrilla warfare and very
advanced and efficient weapons."
According to Göksel,"Hizbullah knows very well that next time it's going to be different. What did we do wrong last time, what will happen next time? They know the other
side is studying too. If it happens tomorrow, they're ready."