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Showing posts with label U.S. Middle East Policy. Show all posts
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26 May 2009

Struggle to Change the Lebanese Regime

עברית

Hizbullah’s Struggle to Change the Lebanese Regime-->

by Dr. Shimon Shapira
Published May 2009

The Jerusalem Viewpoints series is published by the Institute for Contemporary Affairs, founded jointly with the Wechsler Family Foundation.
No. 571 May-June 2009

Hizbullah's Struggle to Change the Lebanese Regime

Shimon Shapira and Yair Minzili

The publication of Hizbullah's subversive plan against Egypt and the exposure of a Shiite group headed by a Hizbullah activist that planned to act against Egyptian targets diverted attention from the challenge that Hizbullah has made against the very foundations of Lebanese authority.

On April 3, 2009, Hizbullah published its political platform in advance of elections to the Lebanese parliament scheduled for June 7, 2009. The document calls for the abolition of sectarian politics and for the enactment of a new election law that would alter the equation of sectarian forces in
Lebanon.

In this manner, Hizbullah seeks to destroy the foundations of the sectarian regime in Lebanon agreed upon in the National Pact of 1943 that has been preserved by the Lebanese state ever since. The abolition of the existing political system will advance Hizbullah toward its fundamental goal: the establishment of an Islamic state and a complete
Iranian takeover of Lebanon.

The scholarly analyses that define Hizbullah as a Lebanese national movement are baseless. What Lebanese national interests are served by subversive activity in Egypt? What Lebanese interests seek the transfer of Iranian arms from Sudan and Sinai to
Gaza? What national Lebanese ideology seeks to subvert the delicate sectarian structure upon which the modern Lebanese state is predicated?

A Pattern of Hizbullah Subversion


The publication of Hizbullah's subversive plan against Egypt and the exposure of a Shiite group headed by a Hizbullah activist, that planned to act against Egyptian targets under the cover of "logistical assistance" to the Palestinians, diverted attention from the challenge that Hizbullah has made against the very foundations of Lebanese authority.
One can safely assume that Hizbullah activity in Egypt was performed with the full knowledge of Iran. The weapons shipment that departed Iran for Gaza was dispatched with Tehran's blessing. Iran was undoubtedly aware that the Egyptian security authorities could uncover Hizbullah's subversive activity, but believed that the Egyptians would prefer to turn a blind eye and allow the passage of the weapons inventory to Gaza. Even if this was not the case, the Iranians posited military assistance to
Hamas as a supreme interest of the Islamic Revolution and were prepared to pay the price of a deterioration in relations between the countries. The attacks by Hassan Nasrallah against Egypt, including a summons to the Egyptian army to overthrow the Mubarak regime during Israel's Gaza operation, would not have been made had Nasrallah not understood that in this fashion he was serving the wishes of his masters in Tehran.

Ever since the disclosures, the mass media in the Arab world and in the West has been preoccupied with the dispute that has erupted between Hizbullah and Egypt, and have almost totally ignored the struggle that Hizbullah has initiated to change the face of the Lebanese regime.

While Britain adopted the questionable decision to open a dialogue with the "political wing" of Hizbullah and in practice recognized Hizbullah as a legitimate movement, it would appear that the artificial distinction drawn by the UK between the political and the military wings of Hizbullah has totally collapsed with the discovery of Hizbullah's subversion in Egypt, which merely compounds what was previously discovered in Morocco. In that Sunni Arab kingdom, the king severed ties with Iran in March 2009, accusing it of supporting Shiite Islamic missionary activity.

Hizbullah's Election Platform: Setting the Stage for an Iranian Takeover of Lebanon
On April 3, 2009, Hizbullah published its political platform in advance of elections to the Lebanese parliament scheduled for June 7, 2009. The document calls for the abolition of sectarian politics and for the enactment of a new election law that would alter the equation of sectarian forces in Lebanon. (The English text of the 2009 Hizbullah platform appears at the end of this essay.)

The 2009 election platform joins a series of basic documents of the Hizbullah movement: These include the Open Letter (Risala Maftuha) from 1985, the first Hizbullah election platform for parliament from 1992, the Hizbullah political document ratified at the movement's Third Congress in 1993, Hizbullah's election platform for the 2000 parliamentary elections, and its platform for the municipal elections of 2004.

These two components - the unequivocal call to abolish sectarian politics and the enactment of a new election law - were placed at the very beginning of the platform in order to emphasize Hizbullah's priorities. In the electoral platform of 2000, Hizbullah had called for establishing a national body for the abolishment of political sectarianism, but only in the fourth section of the platform. It is assumed that in this manner Hizbullah seeks to advance its aspiration to destroy the foundations of the sectarian regime in Lebanon agreed upon in the National Pact of 1943 that has been preserved by the Lebanese state ever since, amidst repeated crises. The abolition of the existing political system will advance Hizbullah toward its fundamental goal: the establishment of an Islamic state that provides political expression to the Shiite majority and a complete Iranian takeover of Lebanon.

What is missing in the new Hizbullah platform? There is no reference to its militia and weapons, as well as to the call from inside Lebanon to dismantle Hizbullah's military capability and to integrate it into the Lebanese Armed Forces. Hizbullah ignores this aspect and insists on keeping its independent military wing as a "resistance" force against Israel.

However, it is clear that the preservation of Hizbullah's military strength is intended primarily to allow the movement to translate its military power and demographic weight into a fundamental change of the Lebanese political system. In addition to this purpose, and no less important, Hizbullah's military power serves as the cutting edge of Iran on Israel's northern border, enabling the Islamic Republic to employ the military power that it erected in Lebanon to serve its strategic interests.

In recent years, and in the course of the severe political crises that have struck Lebanon since the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in March 2005, Hizbullah has not concealed its intentions to realize the mission entrusted to it by the Iranian Revolutionary regime. The movement is to seize power in Lebanon and thus create another stable and trustworthy link in the Shiite axis of evil under Iranian leadership. In the Lebanese political realm, Hizbullah has labored to reinforce "the (Shiite) Opposition Camp" by aligning with powerful factions beyond the Shiite community against the Sunni-Shiite coalition headed by Saad al-Hariri. In practice, Hizbullah scored a major success by attracting to its side the Christian Free Patriotic Movement headed by Gen. Michel Aoun, and has strengthened its alliance with extremist Salafist Sunni groups. In a show of force, Hizbullah undertook an unprecedented brutal action when it effectively took over Beirut on May 7, 2008, in response to a government attempt to bring about the dismantling of Hizbullah's independent communications infrastructure within Lebanon.

Hizbullah's call for ending political sectarianism, coupled with the enactment of a new election law, came after this demonstration of power and self-confidence, and constitutes the apogee of its indefatigable efforts to attain power in Lebanon. The formulation of an electoral program in a manner that awards Hizbullah the deceptive image of an authentic Lebanese party operating on the basis of Lebanese interests was calculated to attract maximal representation and perhaps even a majority in parliament. However, its political rivals at home will seek to exploit Hizbullah's recent entanglements in subversion against Egypt in order to expose Hizbullah as a disruptive force operating in the service of Iran and
Syria.

Once again, it has been demonstrated that all the scholarly analyses that define Hizbullah as a Lebanese national movement are baseless. What Lebanese national interests are served by subversive activity in Egypt? What Lebanese interests seek the transfer of Iranian arms from Sudan and Sinai to Gaza? What national Lebanese ideology seeks to subvert the delicate sectarian structure upon which the modern Lebanese state is predicated? The responses to these questions may be found in the framework of relations between Revolutionary Iran and its protégé in Lebanon, and between Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his loyal and obedient representative Hassan Nasrallah. The essence of the tie between them is not simply religious, but has far-reaching political implications influencing the range of Hizbullah behavior in the Lebanese arena and beyond, and symbolizes the growing influence of Iran in the Arab world.

The Hizbullah Platform for the June 2009 Parliamentary Elections

Introduction


Mohammed Ra'ad, the head of Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc, presented Hizbullah's election platform on April 3, 2009:


With the approach of the parliamentary elections on June 7, we are seeking to reformulate the political process and deal with the collapse of authority that has resulted in crises that have adversely influenced national life and have plunged this country into a cycle of instability.

UN Resolution 1559 of 2004 [which calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all militias in Lebanon] constituted in some respects a portal for an internal civil war and opened the gates to regional and international intervention that occasioned bitter divisions. These divisions were exploited by international forces headed by the United States in order to transfer the Lebanese arena to their tutelage.

When Hizbullah joined the national dialogue, we expected that this would serve as an opportunity to reformulate a national consensus, and step away from the division into camps, for we believe that we cannot safeguard the homeland and its unity unless a spirit of mutual understanding and dialogue triumphs. We were always those who sought Islamic unity and national unity. Subsequently, mutual understanding was achieved between Hizbullah and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement [led by Gen. Michel Aoun] as a pioneering step on this track.

The Zionist war of aggression in July 2006 touched off an unprecedented international attack upon Lebanon. It strove to liquidate the Lebanese desire to maintain the resistance and subordinate Lebanon. However, the major achievements and acts of bravery of the holy warriors (mujaheddin) of the Islamic resistance turned the criminal aggression supported by international and regional forces into a disgraceful debacle which found expression in the downfall of the political and military team of the Zionist entity, and the evaporation of illusions of an American takeover of the region. Lebanon's victory in this war was recognized throughout the entire world.

The resistance is determined to complete the liberation of the remaining occupied lands, and particularly the Shebaa Farms and the hills of Kfar Shuba. We believe that any strategy of defense must integrate the current capabilities of the resistance and the capabilities of the Lebanese army, enabling it to stand up to Israeli aspirations regarding our lands and our water sources.

We affirm our enmity to Israel, our support and assistance to our Palestinian brothers to liberate their land and the holy places, and our assiduous efforts to establish excellent ties of fraternity with the Syrian Arab Republic.

In the Field of Political Reform 1

A. Cancelling Political Sectarianism

Forming the National Committee for Cancelling Political Sectarianism in accordance with the Lebanese national consensus document, so that it will start its work and take the practical measures to implement the recommendations that it will reach.

B. Electoral Law

The sound way to effect reform lies in enacting a modern electoral law based on proportionality. At the same time, the constitutional amendment concerning lowering the voting age to 18 years must be finalized, in addition to finalizing another amendment related to the separation of the parliamentary membership from the cabinet membership.

C. Equitable Development

The principle of equitable development constitutes one of the pillars of political reform. For this purpose it was enunciated in the contractual preamble of the constitution. In order to realize this, we demand the restoration of the Planning Ministry, drawing up five-or 10-year plans that monitor the needs of all areas in various sectors.

D. Administrative Decentralization

In its preamble, the constitution stipulates a revision of the administrative divisions, taking into consideration national unity and the preservation of coexistence. The administrative decentralization means granting expanded administrative powers to smaller units - municipalities, districts, and governorates. The aim is to strengthen development opportunities and facilitate the quick handling of paperwork and administrative duties.

E. The Judiciary

Since the Lebanese constitution has stipulated that the judiciary is an independent authority, side by side with the legislative and executive branches of power, and since the fair and impartial judiciary is a guarantee for the establishment of the state of law and preserving the rights of both the individual and the society - and hence there can be no political reform without it - we are of the opinion that work is necessary to enact and implement laws that help organize the judiciary under a higher independent judicial committee.

Administrative Reform


Administrative reform constitutes a major challenge in all societies. Trim and efficient administration is the characteristic of modern states where administrative reform aims to reduce the burdens on the citizens, mobilize resources and capabilities, and carry out duties with speed and efficiency. In this regard, work should proceed in accordance with the following principles:

A. Drawing up a comprehensive blueprint for the administration and its needs, making an inventory of the shortages and vacant positions and filling them.

B. Stressing scientific qualifications and practical skills.

C. Introducing modernization, automation, and information networking, and fighting bureaucracy.

D. Activating monitoring and accountability and strengthening and bolstering monitoring establishments - Civil Service Commission, Central Inspection, and the Public Disciplinary Council, in addition to the Auditing Commission.

E. Developing laws and regulations in the field of administration and the budget, ensuring speed in the performance of work, stopping waste, and ending bribery.

F. Adopting a scientific and methodological plan in the appointment of employees, especially the senior officials (grades one and two) within efforts to enhance efficiency and good performance in the official administration.

G. Enhancing efforts to implement the creation of the two governorates of Baalbek-Hermel and Akkar, and completing the issuance of the applicable decisions in this regard.
Economic and Financial Reform


Since independence, Lebanon has been suffering from the absence of carefully studied economic and developmental visions that are based on the available resources, national requirements, and regional harmony. For these reasons the process of improving and developing economic performance has been proceeding in a haphazard manner. This led to the deterioration of some productive sectors, the termination of others, and the growth of others in an illogical manner. The Lebanese economy has been steered to promote services and realize profit. This resulted in harming economies that were considered productive and providing employment for skilled people, such as agriculture and industry.

In order to begin a genuine economic reform, we must first draw up a natural role of the state and move from an indifferent state with limited social and economic contributions to a state that is responsible for realizing growth and justice. Therefore, it is necessary to work along the following tracks:

The development track, through an equitable development of the various sectors and areas, a partnership in development between the public and private sectors, and fair distribution of profits.

The economic track, by realizing a sustainable and firm growth in domestic production, raising production competitiveness in the economic sectors, and merging with the regional surroundings (the Arab and Islamic markets).

The social track, by lowering the unemployment level, fighting poverty, and developing the means of redistribution of income and providing basic services.

The financial track, by ending the vicious circle of public debt, reducing the servicing of debts, reducing the budget deficit, fighting dissipation, and carrying out fair taxation reforms.

In this connection, emphasis must be laid on the need to develop and sustain the policy of activating the productive sectors such as agriculture, industry, and tourism by ensuring loans on easy terms, providing taxation incentives, encouraging small businesses to merge, strengthening cooperative work, providing guidance, extending support through needed equipment, increasing irrigated areas, studying the needs of the domestic and external markets by aiming at agricultural industrialization, developing the animal production sector, and backing various types of exports.

The ultimate aim is to fight poverty and social marginalization, and this requires joint efforts by the public and private sectors in concentrating on economic activities that provide job opportunities and which are directed at the countryside and remote areas.

Education and Learning Sector


The Lebanese University is the most important higher education institution in Lebanon in terms of its size, its specialties, and the number of its students, especially those who come from limited income families. It is supposed to contribute to building the future of the homeland's generations. This requires backing and developing by implementing the law that pertains to it, which protects its financial and administrative independence, ensures its development, and strengthens its scientific research resources. Unresolved issues must be resolved such as the problem of full time teachers and their protection, supporting the Contracting Fund, and reviving the Lebanese University's Students National Union.

As for the public education sector, duty calls for drawing up a comprehensive educational plan, stressing a higher level of educational qualifications, providing the necessary needs for schools, ensuring heating fuel during winter, backing the School Fund Program, revising the map of the distribution of schools in conformity with the requirements of equitable development, in addition to developing educational institutions, stressing the powers of educational inspection, implementing the system of compulsory and free education, enhancing academic, vocational, and technical education, and treating the chronic needs of the teachers and instructors in various stages in a responsible and positive way.

Civil Society Organizations


Within the framework of enhancing the national sense of responsibility, efforts must be exerted to develop party and trade union activities and open the way for civic society organizations to be active and to become a vital supporter and an effective monitor of the performance of the ruling authority's departments. This will lead to enhancing the awareness of society to the need to shoulder its duties in managing public life. In this regard, we emphasize the following:

1. The media

Freedom of expression must be preserved and protected, as stipulated in the preamble of the constitution, considering it an unchanging right that cannot be infringed upon within the framework of the law. Thus, emphasis will be laid on freedom of the media and the revision of certain laws, especially the Publications Law, thus lifting the threats against the media.

2. Women

Efforts should be exerted to strengthen the role of women and develop their participation in the political, cultural, educational, media and social fields, and to exploit this role in establishing a balance in society in terms of psychology and values.

3. Youth

Taking care of the rising generations and the young, developing their resources and talents, guiding them towards sublime national and humanitarian objectives, and protecting them from corrupt thought and the tools and means of deviation and immorality.

4. Fighting the deviations and the harmful ailments in our society, whether through the media or by other means, emphasizing educational and media guidance, warning against the spread of corruption and dissolute values, and augment the monitoring of scenes and pictures that infringe on public morality and harm the humanitarian image of women.

5. Protecting the privacy of citizens by preventing indiscriminate wiretapping of their telephone conversations, and respecting the laws that pertain to these issues and bringing the violators of these laws, whoever they may be, to account for what they do.

Improving and Developing Social Services


In light of our conviction that the state cannot shirk its caring role nor behave in an indifferent manner or be apathetic towards the needs of the citizens, it is the duty of the state to improve services in the fields of health, education, housing, and social care. Of these duties, we mention the following:

A. Activating the public health sector, generalizing the principle of healthcare and preventive medicine, putting an end to monopolization in the drug market, and unifying the hospitalization funds.

B. Backing efforts to develop and reform the National Fund for Social Security and expanding the circle of its beneficiaries.

C. Drawing up a housing strategy that takes into consideration the comprehensive development of all areas, in addition to enhancing the state's support for housing loans.
D. Continuing the process of land planning and specification, enhancing the work pertaining to the annexation and demarcation of land, and treating property problems and issues pertaining to joint possession of property, and dealing with violations of the law by owners of buildings.


Energy and the Protection of Resources

Squandering water and natural resources is one of the chronic problems in Lebanon. Despite huge precipitation and multiple sources of water, the hardship continues to be great, especially during the dry season. Therefore, work should be done on the following:

A. Protecting water resources, especially the ones that are being threatened by the Israeli enemy.

B. Completing Canal 800 of the Litani River project.

C. Exerting serious efforts to complete the dams and lakes projects in accordance with a specific timeframe.

D. Expanding and rehabilitating the irrigation networks, especially in agricultural areas.

E. Completing the establishment and the rehabilitation of the domestic water networks.

As for the electricity sector, what is required is work to complete the electric power lines, modernize the production plants, treat the technical waste, fight transgressions on energy sources, and expand to create new and environment-friendly means of production.

As for the communications sector, we are required to preserve this national resource by developing this sector and improving its services, offering the consumers further services and observing the rule of providing the best service at the least cost.

Environmental Protection


The environment in Lebanon has been exposed to a large-scale process of destruction and violations, such as forest fires, indiscriminate felling of trees, lawlessness in opening quarries and gravel facilities, polluting the rivers with sewage water, and indiscriminate burial of sold waste. All of this makes us sound the alarm and declare a state of national emergency to do the following:

A. Adopting a guiding scientific environmental plan on sites for quarries and gravel production.

B. Enhancing the completion of building sewage systems in all areas.

C. Drawing up a modern study for the best means of getting rid of solid waste and transforming it into energy instead of burying it under the ground.

D. Providing effective means of firefighting, imposing strict measures to prevent tampering with the environment, and combating transgressions on the seacoast and rivers.

E. Launching a national campaign to enhance the green picture of Lebanon by cooperation with all organizations, both local and foreign, that care for the environment
* * *
Note
1. This translation of the Hizbullah platform appeared on the "Now Lebanon" website, based on the speech by Mohammad Raad broadcast on Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Manar TV on April 6, 2009, http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=89737
* * *
Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Shimon Shapira is the author of
Hizballah: Between Iran and Lebanon, 4th ed. (Tel Aviv: Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University, 2006). He is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
Yair Minzili is a senior researcher in the fields of economics, political policy, and Islam in the Middle East.

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06 November 2008

Meanwhile....

8 Marheshwan 5769

While Americans go to the polls to elect a new president, Israel is already gearing up for its own Kenneseth elections later this winter.

The Shabba"k (secret police) does a sweep of interrogations of settlers, Jews who hold by the Ramba"m, and others, over the pipe bombing of leftist Prof. Shernhell.

The IDF lies to soldiers in order to guarantee their participation in the destruction of the Federman and Tor Family homes in Hevron. This not the first time this has happened. Remember Havath Gilad seven years ago?

The media, cabinet ministers, and even so-called right-wing members of Kenneseth and Pesh"a Council officials immediately take the opportunity to demonize Torah observant Jews in Yehudah & Shomron (Judea & Samaria) who refuse to be robots of the State, otherwise know as "crazy settlers."

A few try to blame the Shabba"k for "provocation." But when it is learned that Shmu'el ben-Yishai is arrested, all are silent.

The PeSh"a Council has taken a different tact, launching a massive PR campaign, wasting thousands of sheqqels, and paper I might add, decrying:

"Fellow Israelis, please like us. We're just like you. Please don't kick us out of our homes!"

Between the lines they're saying...

(Well, actually, we don't care what you do to those crazy people in Yitzhar, Itamar, Tapu'ah, Hevron, Havath Ma'on, and most of the hilltops. We're not like THEM. They don't look like most of us, and they definitely don't think and act like us. Free feel to demonize them.)
Even though the PeSh"a Council claim success in its PR campaign, that does not stop cabinet ministers from escalating the war of words by claiming that the next political murder right around the corner.

Meanwhile....
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Travel to Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Jordan, and Egypt

Secretary of State Rice will travel to Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Jordan, and Egypt from November 5 to 9. While in the region she will meet with her Quartet counterparts and senior government officials to discuss efforts to achieve positive and lasting peace in the region consistent with the Annapolis process and the shared-goal of a two-state solution.

October 30, 2008

(Tip-off from Tomer Devorah)
Did anyone else notice that she was coming, the day after the U. S. Presidential election?

All of this back and forth about the right way to demonize settlers is about paving the way for the Israeli government to be able to give up more land.

They have to. They're all puppets, whether they know they are, or not. They are servicing the U. S., and its interests.

Secretary Rice wants a deal now, a deal which will be binding on future prime ministers.

If Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud) becomes prime minister again, he can just throw up his arms, and say there's nothing he can do about it. If Tzippi Livni (Kadima) becomes prime minister, she can try to out-do Rice's plan.

President Bush's ego is really THAT big, that he's more worried about his legacy [and oil] than what's right. So much for Christians "allies."

How many more times will Jews have to place their trust in Christians before they realize their grave mistake? Hopefully not too many more, but we are a "stiff-necked people."

It's the same ol' co-dependent, "Goyim, We'll do what you say, if you accept us, and take care of us." and "See? We're just like you."

The only question is, who is the U. S. President really serving,...I mean besides himself.

The next one looks like it'll be Sen. Barack Obama. Who is he serving?

Meanwhile....
Syria moves more tank and artillery forces south to the Israeli border.

Stay tuned....

Cross-posted on Esser Agaroth.

*********

"PeSh"a" Council is a play on rhyming words. It is a reference to the YeSh"a Council, the self-appointed body, receiving its budget directly from the Office of the Prime Minister, which claims authority over Yehudah, Shomron, and at one time, Azza.

Pesha is Hebrew for "crime."

07 February 2008

THE IRANIAN-ISRAELI STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP

February 2008

DETERRENCE, MISSILE DEFENSE, AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE
IN THE IRANIAN-ISRAELI STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP


Dr. W. Andrew Terrill

Strategic Studies Institute

One of the central concerns of U.S. strategic analysts examining the Middle East is the danger that Iran may develop a nuclear weapons capability which it could use to threaten the security of other regional states. These fears exist despite the recent declassification of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “key judgments” summary suggesting that the Iranian nuclear weapons development program was frozen in 2003.

The NIE also states that technical problems have handicapped Iran’s ongoing nuclear enrichment effort under which natural uranium is processed into feedstock and then “enriched” for use as reactor fuel (peaceful use when used only for nuclear energy) or “highly enriched” for use in nuclear weapons. These conclusions by the U.S. intelligence community about the restraints and setbacks in the Iranian program are extremely good news, but they are not the whole story.
Unfortunately, the entire history of the Iranian program, including previous efforts to keep the enrichment effort secret, suggests that Tehran will almost certainly continue to seek a nuclear weapons capability despite the reassuring factors noted in the NIE.
Moreover, Iran’s continuing focus on nuclear enrichment is particularly disturbing since the development of a large-scale enrichment capability is the most technologically challenging aspect of the effort to build a nuclear weapon (despite the alternative uses of this technology for peaceful purposes). The questions, therefore, arise as to how dangerous will a nuclear Iran be and what will be the primary targets for Iranian nuclear weapons should Tehran obtain such a capability?

Moreover, in view of the incendiary rhetoric of Iranian President Ahmadinejad, it appears reasonable to wonder if there is a serious danger that Iran will attack Israel with nuclear weapons during some future period of Israeli-Iranian tension (such as may emerge out of a new Lebanon war). A related question that has sometimes been raised is should the United States at some point consider attacking Iranian nuclear sites before Iran becomes a nuclear power and this scenario can play itself out?
A future Iranian attack on Israel during a time of crisis is at least a remote possibility, but it is also subject to a variety of important problems that must be examined when considering the strategic viability of such an option for Tehran. Iran has both ideological and practical constraints that, under current conditions, would rule out such strikes in all but the most extreme circumstances.

These constraints are (1) collateral damage that might kill staggeringly large numbers of Palestinians and might also significantly harm the populations of a variety of Arab/Muslim states bordering on Israel, (2) deterrence by Israeli strategic forces which may be called upon to engage in massive retaliation for an Iranian strike, and (3) Israel’s strong and expanding system of missile defense and to a lesser extent its civil defense system consisting of underground shelters and other facilities for population protection.

Additionally, some leaders in Tehran might be concerned that any attack on Israel risks harm to Jerusalem, the third holiest city in Islam. The issue of Palestinian collateral damage is one of the most important political and ideological issues facing Iranian strategists, although it is seldom mentioned in current U.S. discussions of Iranian options.

It is not possible to attack Israel with nuclear weapons without also subjecting large numbers of nearby Palestinians and Israeli Arabs to the radioactive fallout associated with such an attack. The lethal range of such fallout is difficult to determine since it will depend upon a variety of factors including wind direction, type of explosion (groundburst versus airburst), and explosive yield.
Nevertheless, high lethality rates can easily reach 20 miles under many reasonable scenarios. Additionally, many communities of Israeli Arabs live quite near the Jewish population, while Palestinians on the West Bank and probably Gaza could also be subject to high doses of lethal fallout.

Unfortunately for the Palestinians, Iranian targeting accuracy for long-range missiles is not known and can reasonably be doubted due to ongoing and public problems that have been associated with Iran’s missile testing program. If Iranian missile accuracy is off even slightly, the Palestinians, Jordanians, Lebanese, or Syrians may pay a much higher price for an Iranian air strike than the Israelis.

Unlike Israel, none of the Arab countries has a modern civil defense system to shelter the population, let alone a missile defense program. While it is conceivable that Iran may under some circumstances accept the loss of huge numbers of Muslims and perhaps damage Jerusalem, such an action would not be entered upon lightly by Iranian leaders and is not consistent with the Iranian leader’s nonstop statements of concern about the Palestinians. It also does not appear consistent with what at least some Iranians claim are their obligations to God.
Deterrence by Israeli forces is the second problem facing Iranian strategic planners. The Israelis are widely believed to have significant numbers of deliverable nuclear weapons that they will use against Iran in any nuclear confrontation. While the details of this arsenal are subject to great Israeli secrecy, most Middle Easterners tend to believe that it is large and diverse, and deterrence is, of course, based on such perceptions.
Additionally, the Iranians are aware of the close relationship between the United States and Israel. Rightly or wrongly, many Iranian leaders may assume that an attack on Israel would also lead to U.S. military intervention against them.

This result, however, may not occur, and it may not be necessary for Israeli victory. A November 2007 study by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests that Israel may have the capability to destroy the Iranian nation-state without help from any other country, relying instead upon advantages that Israeli nuclear weapons have in accuracy and yield.

Iran, despite the zealotry and bombast of some of its leaders, has shown a consistent ability to conduct rational, national interest-based defense and foreign policies that would avoid deliberately provoking a nuclear war against their country.
Additionally, there is the issue of Israel’s expanding missile defense program, which is currently composed of the Israeli Arrow system and the most recent versions of the U.S.-produced Patriot system. In this regard, missile defense may be one of the most important guarantees of Israel’s future survival and security. Currently, the Israelis are seeking to expand their existing missile defenses into an elaborate and layered system of protection that could defend against any potential foe or array of foes.

According to the journal, Defense News, the Israelis are also undergoing a rigorous effort to test and improve their defensive systems using simulations of Iranian missile attacks. While there is probably no such thing as leak proof defense, the protection of a small country with limited targets is a much more achievable goal than protecting a larger country such as the United States.

Indeed, if a comprehensive and layered missile defense system cannot protect a small country like Israel from a technologically inferior rival such as Iran, it may be time to give up on the concept altogether. Moreover, the Israeli defensive system raises the possibility that an Iranian attack against Israel could fail to produce significant damage but could produce massive Israeli retaliation destroying the Islamic Republic while leaving Israel intact.
None of this is to say that the United States or Israel should become complacent about the Iranian nuclear program. Vigorous diplomacy, including an effort to strengthen multilateral sanctions in response to Iranian unwillingness to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, is fully warranted. A U.S. willingness to blame the Iranians publicly for any stonewalling in negotiations may also be essential to help expand international sanctions, but will only be effective if the United States carries out high level and serious negotiations in which we continuously consult with our allies.

Special efforts need to be made to include Gulf Arab states and especially Saudi Arabia in this campaign since the Gulf Cooperation Council states are also worried about Iranian nuclear weapons, albeit for different reasons than concern the Israelis. Conversely, U.S. preemptive military action against Iran seems deeply unwise and could produce tremendous difficulties for the United States in Iraq and huge difficulties for Israel in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Disruption in the oil sector could trigger a number of serious global economic consequences, including possible $200 a barrel prices.

Bombing raids against Iran could also breathe new life into Iran’s Islamist regime and savagely wound the already crippled Iranian reform movement. Such attacks may delay the Iranian nuclear program, but they will not stop it. Thus, it is important to weigh all of the relevant factors before we consider an attack.
Any reasonable consideration of the costs and benefits of such an attack suggests that Iran is a manageable problem that can be dealt with in ways other than using force. In fact, we may someday see a pro-American Tehran and look back with relief that we did not extend the reign of the Iranian clerics with an unnecessary attack, perhaps leading to an unnecessary war. **** The views expressed in this op-ed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This colloquium brief is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. *****

04 January 2008

An Open Letter to President George W. Bush

An Open Letter to President George W. Bush
(from the Blogmaster)


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Your upcoming visit to Israel
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2008 07:49:05 +0200
From:Maccabee Arms Ltd.
Reply-To:MaccabeeArms@Charter.net
Organization:Maccabee Arms Ltd. Reno, Nevada, U.S.
To:President George W. Bush
president@whitehouse.gov

Dear President Bush,

Yesterday Al Aksa Brigades (that's the group that no longer exists because PA security put them out of business) announced that from Samaria they fired a "Bashaar 1" rocket into Israel. There is no evidence of that rocket. But the announced intention is clear.

A spokesman for the group said they intend to continue to manufacture rockets in Judea and Samaria:

"We are obligated to the path of the (armed struggle), the Fatah movement's path. We won't put our guns down and we'll continue resisting the occupation. Our weapons will continue to be steadfastly pointed towards the Zionist enemy."

  • Isn't it obvious that the "Palestinians" will never negotiate in good faith.
  • Isn't it also evident that no one can speak for the Palestinians, and if anyone now has legitimacy, it is the terrorist organization "Hamas" that was not only elected by the Palestinians, but who threw the current Prime Minister out of Gaza?
  • Prime Minister Abbas belongs to, and controls Fatah who is no less a terrorist group than Hamas. Why are we negotiating with Abbas when he has stated that his designs on Jerusalem are "non-negotiable"?

Please do not force Israel into any agreement that the Israelis themselves do not want, and will not honor. Prime Minister Olmert is another Jimmy Carter. We view him as an incompetent narcissist who does not speak for the majority of the people of Israel. He is only in office because his cronies in the Kenesset refuse to call for elections out of fear of losing their own seats.

It is abundantly clear that the Arabs surrounding Israel are capitalizing on Israel's perceived weaknesses because of Olmert's failure at Annapolis, the United States insistence on uprooting Jewish homes, and forcing Israel to accept a hostile Arab state cutting her in half.

If the United States continues on this two-faced policy, pretending to be Israel's friend and ally and giving arms and assistance to the Palestinians, Israel will not be able to defend herself.

Olmert is a traitor. The Israel Defense Forces will not follow his orders if they endanger Israeli citizens; i.e. giving the Golan to Syria. (why would anyone want to force Israel into this strategic blunder unless they are pushing for her eventual destruction?)

Another point to consider... no matter what the United States or Olmert says, the Jewish people will not allow the partition of Jerusalem. Such a move, if supported by the IDF, will throw the country into civil war. Do you want something as horrendous to be your legacy as President? I hope not!

Please reconsider your position on a Palestinian State and, on the construction in the "Settlements" (actually bona fide Jewish towns), and in uprooting thousands of Jewish citizens from their homes. Look at the aftermath of the "evacuation" of Gush Katif! Why would you want a repetition of making Jewish citizens refugees in their own country because of nothing other than pressure by you and the State Department (or should I say extortion)?

Sincerely,

William D. Maniaci Reno, Nevada 89502

Life is stronger than death; Freedom is stronger than slavery; Courage and faith are stronger than fear

********************************************************************************

-------- Original Message --------
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 00:49:13 -0500 (EST)
From:
comments@whitehouse.gov
To: MaccabeeArms@Charter.net

On behalf of President Bush, thank you for your correspondence.We appreciate hearing your views and welcome your suggestions.Due to the large volume of e-mail received, the White House cannot respond to every message.Thank you again for taking the time to write.

08 November 2007

An open letter to Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice

An open letter to Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice

The Jewish Community of Hebron
November 06, 2007
The Honorable Dr. Condoleezza Rice
Secretary of State
United States Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520 U.S.A.

Dear Secretary Rice,

We notice that recently you have been pledging much effort and time to the Middle East. We are sure that you are doing this on behalf of those who live in this region and that your efforts are meant to ordain a better future for the region and its inhabitants. We might appreciate these intentions if we did not know clearly that all your efforts and actions will cause the region and its residents much more suffering and bloodshed. Moreover, the goals that you have established are totally contrary to justice, the Bible, and the rights of the Jews in this country.

We wish to remind you, Dr. Rice, that in the Bible this land was promised to the Jewish people some 4,000 years ago. Abraham, the Jewish patriarch, purchased Hebron more than 3,800 years ago. The Jews left Egypt in order to go to their country, the Holy Land, the Land of Israel, 3,500 years ago. There they established a state 3,300 years ago. This state became the kingdom of the Jewish King David, 3,000 years ago. The Temple stood in the center of the country, Jerusalem, and after being destroyed by the Babylonians it was rebuilt some 2,000 years ago. In all of those generations, this land was the sole homeland of the Jewish people. Only the Jewish people gave it independence. Only they lent it a distinct identity.

Please bear in mind that by the time Arabs reached this country, it had belonged to the Jews for thousands of years. The Arabs destroyed the country and caused its inhabitants much suffering. They never established an independent state in this country and never contributed a thing to its development. Under Arab rule, most of the country was unpopulated and desolate, covered with marshes and deserts – as your countryman, the renowned Mark Twain, described in his unforgettable book The Innocents Abroad. The Holy Land remained abandoned, as if loyally waiting for its offspring to return. The Jewish people, too, remained true to its land for millennia and aspired to return to it. Jews began to return to the Land of Israel about 140 years ago and started to make it blossom, cultivate its soil, and build it. Then the Arabs woke up and embarked on acts of terror and murderous attacks. In 1929, lethal Arab terror brought on the destruction of the world’s most ancient Jewish community, that of Hebron. Arabs butchered seventy Jews, brutalized and raped dozens of women, and banished the survivors. The mastermind of pogroms against the Jews of the Land of Israel in the 1920s, the Arab leader Amin al-Husayni, the founder of Palestinian nationalism, went so far as to meet with Hitler during the Holocaust and to plan, in common cause, the annihilation of all Jews in the Land of Israel. He even established Muslim units in the Nazi army. These aspirations have been typical of the Palestinian leadership ever since.

Even if Arabs have personal human rights, they have never had any collective national rights in this country. This is clear to anyone who has average schooling. However, to secure national rights that they never had, the Arabs established terror organizations of which the PLO was the first. These organizations specialize in the murder of civilians – men, women, and children, mainly Jews and Israelis but also many others, including no few American citizens. From the moment Israel recognized the PLO and gave it land in certain parts of the country, these areas have become incubators of terrorism, suffering, and corruption. Not long ago it transpired that the PLO had become so corrupt and reviled an entity that the Arabs themselves gave rise to a much more murderous enemy, Hamas, which very easily seized power in the Gaza Strip by means of gruesome acts of terror. Your persistence in trying to hand further areas to the PLO will certainly inflict more terrorism, more suffering, and more bloodshed on the entire region and its inhabitants.

Moreover, you constantly ignore the rights of the Jews in this territory, their historical and sole country and homeland. The Jewish community has returned to Hebron and is revitalizing the Jewish quarter and the synagogues that the Arabs destroyed. We have full rights to these properties and buildings. Your policies are definitely leading to further destruction and killing. Is this how your country treats the property of Jewish communities on American soil?

You must be aware that Jews who remain in any territory that is handed over to the PLO will be easy prey for brutal murder – and a fortiori if the territory falls into the hands of Hamas, as is likely. How can you promote a policy that will deal the Jews so grievous a blow – in their homeland of all places, the historical Holy Land?

Your schemes plainly include the deportation of tens of thousands of Jews from their localities and homes. Therefore, we wish to inform you that we do not intend to leave our homes on any terms. You will have to use force against us in order to transfer the territory, free of Jews, to the murderers’ organizations – the PLO and Hamas. This is the direction in which you are leading the Middle East. Is this how the United States fights for justice and against Islamic terror?

We hope you receive these remarks and change the dangerous direction in which you are heading. Please remember: many generations after you conclude your term in office, we, the inhabitants of this region, will still be here and will have to endure the consequences of your policies. Only Israeli control from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River will confer rights upon all people in the region and maximize the peace and happiness of all inhabitants of the area.

Respectfully,
Noam Arnon
David Wilder
The Jewish Community of Hebron

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