“Micro-Disarmament” – Your personal firearms are at risk!

“Micro-Disarmament” –

Your personal firearms

are at risk!

The U.N. is planning to take your “Legal and Legitimate” firearms. Read the excerpt below from a lengthy United Nations Planning Study:

Pro-active Measures

Information Gathering

http://www.jpfo.org/proposaldestruction.pdf

1 Introduction

1.1 Small Arms

Many of the problems that occur during peace enforcement, peace keeping and peace

monitoring can be related to the tracking of potentially hostile intentions and, more

significantly, hostile capabilities of opposing factions. The chief capability to be

identified, tracked and removed from volatile peace keeping situations is invariably that

of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW).

Small arms are dangerous for three main reasons: they are cheap; they are usually

plentiful (there are usually more AK 47s than there are tanks), and finally, they are more

easily concealed.

1.2 Light Weapons

There has been a trend towards miniaturization in weapons development, leading to

greater portability, mobility and concealability. The result is that many weapons

previously thought of as a 'medium' weapons (such as the explosive missile projector),

are now effectively considered as an individual "light weapon," to be classified with more

traditional man portable small arms. The US M72 and the Russian RPG 7 are classic

examples.

1.3 The Threat

The need to control the acquisition, spread and use of SALW is therefore of paramount

importance to prevent politically dangerous situations from escalating or to bring any

conflict under control. For the peacekeeper, politician and arms controller alike, SALW

are a major threat, and are therefore a prime information requirement for any agency

charged with keeping the peace, or involved in developing indigenous capacities. As any

policeman can testify, criminals with guns are more dangerous than without them. This

blinding glimpse of the obvious is, however, fundamental to the intellectual basis of any

political need to control small arms. They are fundamentally dangerous and their

removal from the equation either by control, neutralisation or removal is essential. The

first step is gain information on their numbers and whereabouts.

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2 Special Factors In UN Peacekeeping and Development

Operations

For the agency charged with a requirement to identify, track and monitor these SALW,

there are a number of special factors that complicate the issue.

2.1 Ubiquity

SALW are by definition small, portable, widespread, easily concealed and cheap. They

therefore represent a particular challenge to the information gathering staff. The quantity

and distribution alone can often cause problems.

2.2 Separation by Use

There are numerous official sources of SALW in most societies. Police and other law

enforcement agencies routinely have access to small arms. A clear distinction between

legal and illicit SALW is sometimes difficult to achieve.

2.3 Political Sensitivity

Most peacekeeping or development work necessarily involves the collection of

information on warring or former warring factions within the troubled community. When

external or international forces are being used to maintain or enforce peace that will

usually involve information collection on the internal organisations of the host state, with

the resulting risk of, for example, accusations of "spying on another member of the UN",

etc. Like many other peacekeeping issues, it is a politically sensitive task.

2.4 Security

The information acquired by international peacekeepers or development workers could

be a target for warring or former warring factions within the target country, who may be

keen to discredit the UN (or any other international organisation). Security of

international information is therefore of paramount importance.

2.5 Supply

There are frequently significant commercial interests bound up in the manufacture, sale

and supply of SALW. Loss of profits to both legal and illegal organisations means that

the economic dimension often has to be factored in by the information gathering team

as part of any policy on SALW monitoring or disarmament.

2.6 Cultural

In some societies, the possession, display and carriage of SALW is a masculine norm.

Insensitive removal of weapons may have cultural and social implications, and indeed

may inspire an unexpected political backlash.

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2.7 Principles of Information Gathering

These special factors have to be considered as part of any information gathering

process in addition to the well known "Principles of Information Gathering " which are

broadly agreed as:

_ A single centralised Control Authority at headquarters level.

_ Continuous ("cyclical") review of both requirements and assessments.

_ Planned tasking and exploitation.

_ Accessibility of product and assessments to those with a need to know.

_ Objectivity of assessment.

_ Timely dissemination.

3 The Information Gathering Task

3.1 Mission

The task of the information gathering team in a situation requiring the identification,

tracking and monitoring of SALW can be potentially sensitive and complicated. Within

these limitations it can, however, be clearly defined as a straightforward mission or aim:

"To provide the international community and developmental programme

manager with the exact number, types, capabilities, locations, movement

and supply of SALW within the area of responsibility and to alert them in

good time to any intended use, storage or disposal."

It is a tall order, but with properly trained staff and sufficient resources, it can be done.

To start the process, the developmental programme manager has to provide clear

direction to the information gathering team, by stating his information requirement. It is

this information requirement that drives the whole process, and the developmental

programme manager must be encouraged to get it right without political interference or

external influence. It is an objective task.

4 The Information Requirement

The information requirement must always be laid down by the implementing agency . On

no account should information gathering teams be allowed to devise their own terms of

reference or define their own targets. They may - and indeed they should - be asked to

advise on what the possibilities and the technical difficulties are, but the overall

statement of information required is ultimately a programme manager’s responsibility.

Once there is a clear direction of information requirements from the programme

manager, then the information cycle is employed to give structure to the response. (A

statement of the programme manager’s information requirement might be phrased in

terms similar to the mission given at paragraph 3 above.)

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5 The Information Cycle

5.1 Processing Information?

All information gathering and evaluation should follow a clear, logical and systematic

cycle of work. The usual convention is for the information cycle to govern the pattern of

changing information into a useful management tool. It is important to clearly distinguish

the difference between the two: raw information is unevaluated material from any source

from which might be processed to provide useful management information; this

management information is the product of the systematic collection, collation,

assessment and interpretation which is then provided to designated users.

A clear definition of management information for SALW is therefore:

"Processed and analysed information on SALW capabilities, locations, supply,

movements and intentions for use, presented accurately and promptly, to enable

decision makers to arrive at correct judgements in order to direct decisive action

in time to influence events."

From this clear task the other four components of the information gathering cycle

('direction' being the first) now follow logically. These are:

_ Collection.

_ Collation.

_ Interpretation.

_ Dissemination.

5.2 Asking the Intelligent Question

Once the programme manager’s direction - or requirement - has been clearly given,

then the information gathering team can follow the cyclical procedure. Every task will

initially be expressed as a question to be answered. For example, "How many AK 47s

are there in area X?" will inspire a Collection Plan.

5.3 Collection

The collection of information should follow a number of clear and straightforward

principles. It should be planned. It should reflect the urgency of the programme

manager’s needs - so it must be prioritised. It must include all available sources and

agencies and make best use of their capabilities (for instance, it is clearly pointless and

wasteful to task a maritime airborne search radar with locating the whereabouts of a few

SALW in individual hands). Last, but not least, it must give a clear indication of the

deadline for an answer.

5.4 The Collection Plan

This is an invaluable tool for monitoring the tasking and progress of sources and

agencies. The programme manager’s information requirement is broken down into its

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components by a series of critical information requirements, (CIRs) or, more commonly,

"the Essential Elements of Information." (EEIs) An example of a collection plan for

SALW is at Annex B

5.5 Sources and Agencies

Much unnecessary confusion exists over which is which. A source is something or

someone that physically collects information - for example, a human agent or an aircraft

with a camera reconnaissance fit. An agency is the organisation that controls that

source. Sources may be directed or undirected: a directed source (e.g. an informant)

can be tasked with a specific question, whereas regular news bulletins from a political

group's radio station cannot be tasked. A list of key sources and agencies are shown in

Annex C.

5.6 Relative Merits of Sources

From this list of sources and agencies - which is not exhaustive and could be refined at

length - it is clear that some sources are better tailored to the needs of the SALW

problem than others. In drawing up the Collection Plan, the information gathering team

must always bear in mind the strengths and weaknesses of each source in answering

the information requirement question.

6 Collation

Collation is the system for receiving, registering, recording, sorting and retrieving

information so that it can be systematically processed into useful management

information.

6.1 Systems

The advent of the computer and massive databases has tended to overshadow the

principles by which information is collated and have allowed the tyranny of the

"database" to drive the system. This can be a mistake, unless the three key elements of

collation are kept equally in balance: receiving; recording; and retrieval. Any failure on

one of these key steps will render even the most sophisticated database suspect in use.

6.2 Security

The problem is compounded by the vital need for security. Modern trends toward

"integrated" all-source databases, which allow rapid comparison of information by

analysts and highlight collection gaps, are inherently extremely tempting targets for

hostile attack. Open source unclassified news cuttings are often filed with nationally

sensitive material passed on a privileged basis. The integrated all source database

therefore represents the 'Crown Jewels' of any information gathering intelligence

organisation or operation, so access must be closely controlled and monitored in the

interests of security and its storage protected to the highest degree.

6.4 Key Collation System Characteristics

In addition to rapid retrieval and accurate storage, a good collation system (be it

computer automated or a manual card index) must have standardised subject headings

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and filing systems and be cross-referenced with other data, in order to be responsive to

the same query coming in different forms.

7 Interpretation

7.1 Importance of Processing

The most crucial task of the whole cycle is the processing and analysing of information

to transform it into useful management information . Failure to correctly assess the

information so expensively obtained and so painstakingly collated will render them both

increasingly pointless. No computer can answer the questions as well as the

experienced and thoughtful analyst who understands what is required.

7.2 A Method of Interpretation

Interpretation usually consist of three discrete phases:

7.2.1 Assessment of the information

Is it true? To do this the analyst will usually look at the source and the information. Both

should be graded separately. The two key questions are, 'how much can I believe this

source?' and, 'is it credible?'

7.2.2 Source Assessment

Thus a report on a small arms find by a military patrol comes from a normally reliable

source. If it is confirmed by an independent source, such as a television report, it is

probably true, (although exact numbers and details must be checked later). These

procedures are well understood by cynical journalists and reporters but are often

overlooked by senior international officials when watching CNN in their offices .

7.2.3 The Three Key Questions

The second phase of the interpretation process consists of asking three key questions

by the experienced analyst:

_ Who/What is it ?

_ What is it doing?

_ What does it mean?

7.3 Checking the Assessment

By comparing their own answers to the first two questions with other information, cross

referencing with other current or historic data, and by using their judgement and

experience to overcome the possibility of deception, the analyst can make an

assessment of "what does it mean?" This interpretation of events then needs to be

checked to see if it is a rational answer to the programme manager’s information

requirement. This is usually done by posing a new information requirement into the

collection plan to validate the assessment from other sources.

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7.4 Importance of Professional Experience

In practice, this seemingly black art of interpretation or analysis is surprisingly amenable

to codification. For example, a find of a few rusting obsolete weapons will usually trigger

alarm bells of concern that this represents a planted "political find" rather than a genuine

discovery of illicit arms to the experienced analyst. Wise analysts invariably ask

themselves, "cui bono? - who benefits? as a tool of interpretation. At the end of the day

however, there is no substitute for professional knowledge and experience.

8 Dissemination

8.1 The Needs of the "Customer"

By far, the most flexible component of the information cycle is dissemination, which can

take many different forms depending on the situation, the customer's need and the

urgency. Different organisations and programme managers invariably have different

perceptions of their requirements and the regularity of the information they require. It is

essential to check on the "customers' requirements".

8.2 Forms of Dissemination

Dissemination usually takes one of three forms: the oral presentation or briefing;

written/pictorial hard copy; or electronic/computerised networked material. All three have

their benefits and need to be balanced against the urgency of customers' requirements

and the need for dialogue with the recipient. Current information for a decision briefing

will usually be verbal. Long term basic background information is best presented as

hard copy. All must be disseminated to the customer with a need to know.

8.3 Principles of Dissemination

The following principles should govern the dissemination of information.

8.3.1 Security

Who needs to know? Excessive secrecy can render good information useless.

Information squirreled away is not useful management information . Even manure has

to be spread on the fields to encourage growth. So disseminating information must be

balanced against an organisation's security of life and operations. Such considerations

are especially important in international operations, where there is a very real danger of

individuals being given access to information or briefings they do not need to know for

reasons of prestige or even international balance. The effect is invariably to drive the

real useful management information into a smaller "kitchen cabinet" which can be

"trusted". In the final analysis the implementing agency - who has the most to lose, must

determine who is told what.

8.3.2 Accuracy

This is obvious but can be forgotten in the rush to get an urgent brief across. Every fact

must be checked, every statement tested. To be exposed as wrong through lack of

attention to detail or other known facts will ruin an information gathering team’s

credibility quicker than anything else.

Want to read more? Follow this link http://www.jpfo.org/proposaldestruction.pdf